Third Iran War Looms After Midterms

Israeli security expert Danny Citrinowicz predicts that the United States and Israel will likely resume hostilities with Iran immediately after the U.S. midterm elections are finalized on November 3. He argues that a third phase of the conflict will prove more destructive than the previous two engagements. Citrinowicz, who served for over twenty years as a military intelligence official before joining the Institute for National Security Studies, describes the prospect of renewed warfare as almost inevitable given the current geopolitical landscape.

The timeline of this prolonged conflict spans the last eighteen months. The first campaign began in June 2025 with strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, lasting twelve days before a fragile truce. Fighting reignited in February following a significant American military buildup. That second phase started with Israeli attacks on senior Iranian leadership, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Citrinowicz notes that his earlier caution that attacks would not change the regime but would widen the conflict has been largely borne out by events.

Analysts anticipate that a third round will target Gulf energy facilities, civilian infrastructure, and undersea communication cables in the Strait of Hormuz. There is also concern that Iran may deploy land forces for limited strikes on Gulf states hosting U.S. bases, such as Kuwait and Bahrain, to maximize economic damage. Since the summer truce collapsed, the U.S. has blockaded Iranian ports while Iran targets commercial shipping. President Donald Trump accused Iran on Truth Social of inflating oil prices before the midterms, a view supported by a report from the Critical Threats Project and the Institute for the Study of War.

Iran’s specific demands include sanctions relief, reparations, the release of frozen assets, and the right to retain enriched uranium. Mediators from Pakistan and Qatar have struggled to restart talks. Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution warns that the war has hardened Iranian leadership’s revolutionary stance. She expects retaliation from proxies like the Houthis and Hezbollah, potentially targeting economic hubs. Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment notes that Trump lacks a clear objective and that military force alone will not force capitulation.

The human cost is substantial. Western NGOs report over 7,000 deaths in Iran, while Lebanese media cite more than 4,000 deaths there. Twenty-one U.S. service members and over 70 Israelis have been killed, with additional casualties in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Yemen. The Pentagon is reportedly drafting a new battle plan, though presidential approval remains uncertain. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, facing close domestic elections, has spoken of finishing the job. Citrinowicz suggests a widening crisis could help Netanyahu form a unity government, though political calculation risks an unnecessary attack.

Despite the tensions, Sadjadpour argues diplomacy is not dead, though it has been narrowed by maximalist U.S. aims. He believes Iran will only compromise under existential economic pressure if given a clear, limited diplomatic exit. He warns that demanding Iran change its identity will not succeed, highlighting the complex path forward for negotiators.

The stakes extend beyond the immediate battlefield to global energy markets and regional stability. With both sides preparing for potential escalation, the coming weeks could determine whether a new, more destructive chapter in this war begins immediately after the U.S. votes.