Israel Vote: 68% of Jews Cite Oct. 7 as Key Factor

68% of Jewish Israelis identify the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks as a central factor in determining their party support, according to the Israel Democracy Institute. The Jerusalem think tank surveyed voters ahead of the national election held late Tuesday. This figure places the security failures of the Hamas-led assault at the center of the political debate. The attack resulted in the deaths of 1,200 people and the abduction of 251 others.

The vote serves as a referendum on Benjamin Netanyahu, the country's longest-serving prime minister. He leads the Likud party, the largest bloc in the Knesset. His main rival is Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief of staff who now leads the centrist Yashar party. Polling indicates a close contest between the two leaders. No single party has ever secured a majority in the 120-seat parliament, requiring post-election coalition negotiations.

Netanyahu faces criticism over his handling of the security breakdown on Oct. 7. Opponents also challenge his support for exempting ultra-Orthodox men from military conscription. Eisenkot, who lost his son and two nephews in combat in Gaza, has pledged to end these de facto exemptions. About a quarter of Jewish voters ranked mandatory military service as a key issue in their decision.

The election features over three dozen competing parties. Roughly one dozen are expected to win enough seats to enter parliament. Other prominent figures include Naftali Bennett, a former prime minister running with Yair Lapid. Itamar Ben-Gvir, the national security minister, leads a far-right party within the current coalition. Yair Golan, a former general, heads the Democrats, a center-left group that supports the establishment of a Palestinian state.

Campaign rhetoric focused on domestic security and the burden of war rather than the humanitarian situation in Gaza. Netanyahu adopted a hawkish stance on Iran and resisted calls for a commission of inquiry into the Oct. 7 events. He accused opponents of planning to create a Palestinian state, using the slogan Right or Palestine. No major candidate advocated for a return to the long-dormant peace process.

Mansour Abbas, who leads Ra'am, the first Arab-led party to join a governing coalition, centered his campaign on crime in Arab communities. He appointed a mainstream Jewish politician as his deputy to position himself as a potential coalition partner. The party did not focus its message on the broader Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

International dynamics influenced the campaign. President Donald Trump endorsed Netanyahu last week. The United States and Israel launched a joint war with Iran on Feb. 28, and regional talks continue. An international arrest warrant remains against Netanyahu. Rights groups and United Nations officials have accused Israel of genocide, a charge the country denies. The next government will work to repair Israel's global standing.