Lebanese Shi'ite Poll Shows 66% Back State Control of Hezbollah Weapons

Lebanese Shi'ites are increasingly open to transferring control of Hezbollah’s weapons to the national government, according to new poll data released in mid-October. The results challenge the long-held assumption that the community will resist disarmament efforts under any circumstances.

Statistics Lebanon conducted the survey in September, interviewing 800 Lebanese Shi'ites. The data shows that 66.4% of respondents support handing the weapons over to the Lebanese state. By comparison, 29.6% prefer that Hezbollah retain its current arsenal. Hezbollah has historically maintained that its military capacity is essential for defending the country against Israel.

Kataeb.org, the digital arm of the Christian Kataeb Party, provided additional context on the political implications of the findings. The site reported that 71.1% of those polled believe decisions regarding war and peace should rest exclusively with the Lebanese state. Only 5.9% said Hezbollah’s leadership should play a larger role in shaping the nation's future direction.

Trust in the Lebanese Armed Forces appears high within the sect. Approximately 78.5% of respondents said they trust the army. Furthermore, 51.1% identified the military as the institution best positioned to ensure long-term security. In contrast, only 16.5% selected Hezbollah for that role. This preference for the state military contradicts the group's traditional claim to be the primary security provider for Shi'ites.

Sentiment regarding the recent conflict remains mixed. Some 67.4% of respondents said Hezbollah failed to meet its objectives in the war with Israel or achieved only partial success. A further 42.1% expressed disappointment, anger, or concern about the group's leadership and the conflict's aftermath. Despite this criticism, 59.5% still expressed some level of trust in the organization, with 37.1% reporting a great deal of trust.

Roi Kais of Israel's public broadcaster KAN noted that Hezbollah’s social support networks and status within the sect continue to sustain its strength. He argued that the group will remain powerful as long as no other entity fills the vacuum it occupies. This observation contrasts with an earlier May 2026 survey by Lebanon's Information International, which found that 87.5% of Shi'ite respondents opposed disarming Hezbollah.

In a June 10 analysis for the Institute for National Security Studies, researchers Orna Mizrahi and Moran Levanoni cited that May survey. They noted that over 90% of respondents opposed ties with Israel at that time. The discrepancy between the May and September polls raises questions about how survey wording or agenda may have influenced the results. The researchers argued that weakening Hezbollah requires a stronger army and financial support from Western and Gulf nations to replace the services the group provides.

Local signs of wariness are emerging in the south. In Tyre, property owners reportedly opposed a branch of Al-Qard Al-Hassan, a Hezbollah-linked financial institution, fearing it might become a target for Israeli strikes. Such branches have been hit in previous conflicts. Meanwhile, Hezbollah announced aid of up to $14,000 for eligible families in Beirut and its southern suburbs whose primary homes were destroyed. The group offered up to $12,000 for those elsewhere in the country.