Serbians Vote in Tightest Race Since 2012 as Students Target 40 Percent

Serbians went to the polls on Sunday in a parliamentary election that political scientists describe as the most competitive since 2012. The Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) has held power for 14 years, but the Student List, backed by a protest movement active for nearly two years, is challenging that grip. Polls cited by analysts suggest the students could capture more than 40% of the vote, a threshold that would break the ruling party's majority.

The campaign finale in Belgrade on Thursday drew thousands, including supporters who walked for days from across the country. Arsa Stojanovic, a biology student, told the crowd the walkers had traversed the nation and found widespread support. Aleksandar Cupic, a transport engineering professor running for the Student List, said the atmosphere "smells like freedom." The evening ended with a traditional kolo circle dance. The movement traces its origins to the November 2024 collapse of a concrete canopy at Novi Sad railway station, which killed 16 people and became a symbol of institutional failure.

The SNS held a separate rally nearby, framing the choice as a battle between stability and chaos. Former President Aleksandar Vucic accused opponents of acting on foreign orders and claimed they had attacked the party with billions of euros. The party argues that a vote for the SNS ensures continuity and protects Serbia's sovereignty.

The campaign was marked by friction. The independent monitoring group CRTA recorded 116 incidents of physical violence or verbal threats in the final week, including attacks on campaigners and seizure of banners. CRTA reported that opposition activists faced surveillance and that police were sometimes slow to protect them. The group found that 75% of national television airtime went to government representatives, while over 80% of coverage for the Student List was negative. The Balkan Investigative Reporting Network cited testimony from a former SNS member describing pressure on public employees to deliver votes. Anonymous sources told Deutsche Welle that voters were offered between €30 and €150, or family holiday packages, to support the SNS.

Political scientist Dusan Spasojevic noted that the uncertainty stems from a likely narrow margin. He warned that a tight SNS victory would almost certainly be contested, as the movement has vowed to defend every vote. Authorities have arrested several people on suspicion of plotting election night disturbances, while alleging students are aided by foreign intelligence. Spasojevic said a decisive win for either side would be best to avoid a post-election crisis.

The European Union, which has considered Serbia a candidate country since 2012, is watching closely. An EU Commission spokesperson stated that key recommendations on the electoral framework remain unimplemented. The spokesperson emphasized that democracy and the rule of law are central to Serbia's accession process. International response is expected to play a role in preventing escalation and persuading authorities to accept the outcome.