Moscow Airports Halt Operations for Nine Hours Daily Amid Drone Surge

Moscow’s four main airports have suspended operations for up to nine hours on some days this October. The disruption affects Domodedovo, Sheremetyevo, Zhukovsky, and Vnukovo, which have halted flights almost daily. These closures represent a sharp increase in aviation interruptions for the Russian capital.

The pattern aligns with a strategy outlined by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in early September. He stated that Ukraine would seek to cut off airspace around Moscow and other Russian destinations. Zelenskyy told airlines, insurers, and travelers that Russian airspace would become completely unsafe. The following day, Ukraine sent a formal warning to the International Civil Aviation Organization.

The immediate cause of the closures is a safety procedure managed by Rosaviatsiya, Russia’s aviation authority. The protocol, known as the carpet rule, closes airspace over a region or around affected airports when an aircraft violates borders, weapons are used, or unidentified objects appear in the sky. Strict limits then apply to all air traffic in the affected zone.

Oleksandr Laneckij, chief executive of Friendly Avia Support, noted that every drone poses a military threat. He compared the current situation to the disruptions caused by Yemen’s Houthis in Saudi airspace. Laneckij argued that Ukraine’s military capabilities far exceed those of the Houthis. This assessment suggests the current level of interference is sustainable and potentially scalable.

Military analyst Jan Matvejev said Ukraine faces little difficulty in disrupting air traffic around Moscow. He noted that triggering the protocol requires only simple drones without warheads or long range. Matvejev pointed out that Ukraine’s arms industry can produce hundreds of combat-ready long-range drones a day. Simon Shuster of The Atlantic wrote in October that Ukraine’s efforts are just getting started.

Matvejev argued that Russian air defenses are not fully effective against the incoming drones. He stated that if it were possible to shoot them down, Russia would have done so by now. He added that Russia would have deployed more air-defense troops if it had them available. This suggests a gap between the volume of drones and the capacity of the defense system.

Both experts warned about risks to civilian flights. Laneckij said Russia might lower the threshold for declaring the carpet protocol, raising the danger of deadly incidents. He referenced the 2024 Christmas Day crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines flight, which killed 38 people after being hit by a Russian air-defense missile. Matvejev said little has changed in Russia’s air-defense protocol since that incident. He noted that while machine guns pose low risks to aircraft, missiles from mass production could drift toward nearby airliners.

Matvejev added that drones need no explosives to cause harm, as a collision with an airplane can be serious. He estimated that a drone flown from Ukraine to Moscow must weigh dozens of kilograms. Airports elsewhere have also been affected, with drone debris falling on Sochi airport earlier this month. In September, Zelenskyy said Kyiv’s airport and Boryspil were struck by Russian forces. Foreign airlines now face three factors in deciding whether to keep flying: military threat, demand, and insurance costs. High risk ratings could sharply raise premiums and ticket prices.