Eisenkot Pursues Minority Path as Bennett and Liberman Resist

With national elections approaching, the political landscape in Israel remains fractured, leaving the anti-Netanyahu camp in a precarious position regarding the formation of the next government. The opposition bloc is currently evaluating the feasibility of establishing a minority administration, a move that has sparked significant internal debate among its leading figures. While polls generally place this camp ahead of the outgoing coalition, the Zionist parties aligned against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu do not currently command the 61 seats traditionally required for a stable mandate. The outcome of the election will likely hinge on small vote margins and the application of the electoral threshold, which could determine whether Israel sees a change in leadership or faces continued political instability.

The central figure in this strategic debate is Gadi Eisenkot, who seeks to lead the bloc and serve as the primary candidate for government formation. Eisenkot has explicitly rejected any arrangement that includes serving under Netanyahu, even in a rotational capacity. His proposed solution involves forming a government if the change-seeking parties secure 58 or 59 seats. This approach relies on the legal distinction between the vote to elect a government and the vote to remove an incumbent. A new government can be sworn in with a simple majority in a confidence vote, allowing for abstentions, whereas removing a sitting government typically requires a constructive vote of no confidence backed by 61 members of the Knesset. Eisenkot has not ruled out receiving support from the Ra'am party, although no specific formula for this cooperation has been agreed upon.

Two prominent leaders within the bloc, Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Liberman, have expressed strong reservations about this minority strategy. Liberman categorically opposes the idea, insisting that a Zionist majority must be secured from the outset. He views a unity government with Netanyahu as unacceptable and suggests that another election is preferable to a government that does not meet his criteria. Liberman has also floated the idea of bringing Likud members of the Knesset into a coalition without Netanyahu, though he has not named specific individuals or confirmed active negotiations. Bennett, who leads the Beyachad list alongside Yair Lapid, shares the demand for a Zionist government and refuses to rely on the votes or abstentions of Arab parties. Despite a recent meeting between Eisenkot and Liberman, their disagreement remains unresolved, and they have issued a joint call to increase voter turnout.

In parallel with the government formation debate, the opposition is nearing an agreement to replace Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana before any coalition deal is finalized. This move is intended to give Netanyahu's opponents control of the parliamentary agenda, even if he remains as head of a caretaker government. The speaker is elected early in a new Knesset term through a public vote, and the bloc could leverage support from Arab party members to elect an agreed-upon candidate. Several names have been raised, including Chili Tropper, Matan Kahana, and Elazar Stern from Eisenkot's list, as well as Meirav Ben-Ari and Eitan Ginzburg from the Bennett-Lapid list. Efrat Rayten of the Democrats and attorney Oded Forer of Yisrael Beytenu are also in the mix. Liberman estimates that up to one-third of the outgoing coalition may vote against Ohana, though they would need to do so openly.

The bloc also aims to advance several legislative priorities, including a state commission of inquiry into the events of October 7, changes to conscription laws, limits on the prime minister's tenure, and the repeal of certain judicial changes made by the outgoing government. Liberman additionally seeks a bar on individuals facing criminal charges serving as prime minister. While party teams have begun coordinating on these issues, no binding agreement exists on the details or the order of implementation. Significant obstacles remain, as not every member supports all judicial changes, and a new speaker would not automatically guarantee a legislative majority. The memory of the previous Bennett-Lapid government, which collapsed before completing its promised reforms, continues to influence the cautious approach of current leaders.

Leadership rivalry also persists within the camp, with Eisenkot aiming to head the largest party and Bennett viewing himself as the natural candidate due to his prior experience as prime minister. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether the opposition can unify its strategy or if internal divisions will lead to further electoral uncertainty.