Poll: Democrats hold 11-point lead over Republicans for Congress

The race for control of Congress has narrowed slightly, but Democrats maintain a clear advantage over Republicans with less than a month left until the general election. A Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Monday provides the latest snapshot of voter sentiment heading into the November 3 vote.

The five-day national survey found that registered voters prefer Democrats for Congress by 47% to 36% on a generic ballot question. This 11 percentage point gap is one point smaller than the margin recorded in a similar poll that closed on October 19. Eleven percent of respondents said they did not know which party they would support if the election were held today.

When the survey included undecided voters who indicated a leaning, the race appeared even tighter. Democrats led by 9 points in that calculation, with 50% support compared to 41% for Republicans. The poll also identified voters most likely to cast ballots. Among that group, Democrats held a 9-point advantage, 53% to 44%.

The shift in economic sentiment has driven the current polling numbers. Inflation rose after President Donald Trump ordered military strikes on Iran in February, which increased gasoline prices. Before that conflict, polls showed voters preferring Republicans as better stewards of the economy. Now, 37% of voters say Democrats have a better approach to the economy, while 33% choose Republicans. Additionally, 73% of surveyed voters said their cost of living is heading in the wrong direction.

Democratic enthusiasm appears higher than Republican energy for the upcoming vote. The poll found that 46% of Democratic voters described themselves as very enthusiastic about the midterms. In contrast, 30% of Republican voters shared that level of excitement.

Analysts note that while Democrats have a strong chance of taking the House, the path to a Senate majority is steeper. Republicans hold structural advantages in specific district and state contests that national polls do not fully capture. A loss in either chamber would complicate the administration's agenda during the final two years of the current presidential term.

The survey was conducted online and gathered responses from 1,679 U.S. adults. This pool included 1,280 registered voters. The margin of error for all adults was 2 percentage points, while the margin for registered voters stood at 3 percentage points.